Chapter 2: Learn How to Infer: Learn How Detectives Find the Truth!
“Pretty nice, isn’t it?” asks Detective Jeffries the following week as he holds up the skateboard. It’s black stained wood with a white painted brand logo on the underside. The blue polyurethane wheels are large compared to the board.
You offer to help. “Ugh. It’s filthy. Let me dust it off.”
“Not a chance!” cautions Jeffries. “See how I’m wearing these special plastic gloves? We use them to examine evidence without changing it. I’m going to place the skateboard on the table. All of you come take a good look. I’ll lift it, turn it around, and let you see all the sides. Write down everything you observe. Then we’ll make reasonable inferences, or conclusions.”
For ten minutes, the cadets examine the skateboard. Afterward, Jeffries lists their observations on the whiteboard—including some that Daniel made when he first found it. The list includes:
“Good!” declares Jeffries. “What’s one of the first things we’ll need to know in order to figure out where this came from?”
“How long it’s been there,” suggests Hannah.
“Exactly,” responds Jeffries.
You ask, “But how do we figure that out?”
“Let’s look at our list. Observations?” inquires Jeffries.
Hannah raises her hand and says, “I thought of something—Livingston? That was the old name of our school. They renamed it Elm Road School nine years ago.”
Read 1 Corinthians 2:14-16. Who do you think Paul is talking about when he describes the “natural man”? What assumptions do you think “natural people” have that keep them from seeing and understanding the truth about God?
“Now,” declares Jeffries, “we have two possibilities. One, the skateboard is at least nine years old, because that appears to be the age of the sticker; or two, the skateboard is new but has an old sticker on it.”
Several cadets point to the cobwebs and the way the skateboard looks. “The skateboard is old!” observes Jason.
“Good,” encourages Jeffries. “The simplest explanation isn’t always true, but it’s usually the best bet. We’re trying to separate what’s most reasonable from all the stuff that’s just possible.”
Jason looks a bit confused.
Jeffries explains, “Remember, many explanations may be possible, but not every explanation is reasonable. For example, it’s possible that little ‘tool-shed gremlins’ crafted the board to make it look old, but that’s not reasonable.”
Jason laughs.
Inference:
Trying to solve a mystery? Write down all the evidence, then make a list of all the possible ways to explain the evidence. One of these explanations will be more reasonable than all the rest.
“Now you’re learning to be a good detective! You’ve just discovered ‘abductive reasoning.’”
“What’s that?” you ask.
Detective Jeffries turns to the whiteboard. “That’s when you make two lists that begin with an e. First an evidence list, and then an explanation list.” He faces the cadets. “We listed the appearance of the board, the cobwebs, the sticker, and the forgotten corner of the shed. Then we thought about two ways to explain the age of the skateboard. We decided the most reasonable explanation was that the skateboard was old. The evidence on the first list helped us figure out the best explanation on the second list.”
“That rules out my friend Zoe,” says Daniel. “She was a baby nine years ago!”
“Which is why we can’t be ‘know-it-alls’ before we look at the facts, just like we talked about last week,” reminds Jeffries. “Now—who investigated Jesus and the claim that He died and then returned to life?”
Hannah and Daniel both raise their hands. “We read that part in our Bibles,” says Hannah. “We found out that there are four books in the Bible that describe what Jesus did—they’re called ‘Gospels.’”
“Yes,” replies Jeffries, “the Gospels were written by men who knew Jesus, or were friends of those who did. They contain eyewitness testimony, and that’s a very important form of evidence.”
Jason waves his hand. “But wait—how do we know these are real eyewitness testimonies instead of legends or myths or something?”
Before anyone can blink, Jeffries turns on the heal of his shoe, spins to face Jason, and says, “Great question as usual. We’ll take a whole session to talk about that—but not today. We’re going to start with the evidence we have and see if it holds up on its own. If it does, then we will check and see if we can trust the testimonies.”
Jeffries points to Daniel. “Okay, so let’s do some abductive reasoning. Daniel, come on up and make the first list of evidence you found about the resurrection of Jesus.”
Daniel writes the following list on the whiteboard:
“Okay,” says Jeffries, picking up the marker, “let’s add one more fact we know from history.”
“Now we’re ready to make our second e list.” Jeffries hands the marker to Jason. “Can you think of some ways to explain these pieces of evidence?”
The activity sheets and videos are designed to help you investigate each chapter. Take the time to assemble your notebook as neatly as possible. It’s important to be organized and precise!
Jason, with the help of the other cadets, writes the following list of possible explanations:
“That’s it, I think,” says Jason as he puts down the marker.
“Not so fast,” says Jeffries. “Remember to keep an open mind! You forgot one other possibility.” He returns to the whiteboard and writes:
Then the detective shares, “We need to be fair and include every possible explanation. Maybe Jesus actually rose from the dead like the Gospels say He did.” Detective Jeffries hands the marker back to Jason. He shrugs his shoulders and says, “That’s fair, I guess.”
The cadets begin to debate with one another about the explanations.
“I can’t believe #1,” argues Daniel. “Have you heard about crosses? It was a long, terrible way to die. Wouldn’t Jesus have lost a lot of blood, and weren’t the Roman soldiers experts when it came to killing people on a cross? They would have known if Jesus was still alive. And when Jesus turned up later, He wasn’t even injured. The ‘fainting’ idea doesn’t work.”
Everyone agrees, so Jason crosses that one off the list.
Hannah wants to mark off one more: “I don’t think they imagined it either. We read that five hundred people all saw Jesus at the same time and in the same way. They could not all imagine the exact same thing.”
Jeffries agrees. “Yes, there is no such thing as a ‘group dream’ or ‘group hallucination.’” Everyone laughs, including Jeffries. Then he holds up his hands to calm down the cadets and adds, “When groups all report the same thing, we call that a memory.”
Jason speaks up now: “But couldn’t the disciples have lied about it? Or maybe somebody else lied about it years later and added the story of the resurrection to the legend of Jesus?”
Faith in Jesus is not “blind.” We have good reasons to believe Christianity is true. There is more than enough evidence. Make sure you know why Christianity is true so you can explain it to others.
“Aha!” declares Jeffries. “That’s where the fourth piece of evidence comes in. The disciples were willing to die for what they claimed about the resurrection. Awfully hard to understand unless they were telling the truth. Who would die for something they know is a lie?”
Jeffries looks at his watch. “Besides, explanations #3 and #4 have other problems, but we’ll have to talk about that later, we’re almost out of time.”
Jason shares out loud, “Looks like the empty tomb is harder to explain away than I thought.”
Jeffries follows Jason’s thought and asks, “Explanation #5, that Jesus rose from the dead, seems to be the simplest explanation, doesn’t it?”